The Kurdistan region’s decision to hold an independence referendum on September 25, 2017, created a new area of conflict in the Middle East. The international players and countries in the region fear that Iraqi Kurdish independence could fuel increased calls for separatism or irredentist activity that would create further instability in the region. China’s position toward the Kurdish question is complex. On the one hand, it maintains cordial diplomatic and commercial ties with the Kurds. On the other hand, it opposes a unilateral Kurdish declaration of independence, and would support an independent Kurdish state only if it obtained the consent of the countries in the region. In any case, the Kurdish question presents a dilemma for China’s foreign policy in the Middle East.
THE LOSS OF DISPUTED TERRITORIES: WHAT IS NEXT FOR THE KURDISTAN REGION?
The October 2017 clashes between Iraqi and Kurdish forces in the disputed territories of the Kurdistan Region led to the loss of territories previously controlled by the Kurdish Peshmerga, including the city of Kirkuk and Sinjar. This article will discuss the various factions of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) as well as the internal dispute between the PUK and KDP. It will also identify possible scenarios for each disputed area. Last, the wider conflict between the Iraqi central government and the Kurdistan Region will be addressed. The intertwining of these various political, diplomatic, and military conflicts has brought severe impediments to the Kurdistan Region after the Kurdish independence referendum process. The article concludes that a federal solution with a strong judicial arrangement is the optimal scenario.
THE SYRIAN CONFLICT: DRIVING FORCES OF BALANCES AND IMBALANCES
At the core of the power struggle among states key to Middle Eastern stability and global balance is the question of who controls whose natural gas flow via whose territories. The United States, Russia, Turkey, Syria, and Iran are analyzed in this context to present how changing alliances have disrupted the regional balance in the Syria conflict. Given the stable hostility between the United States and Russia as well as the steady friendship between Russia and Syria, Turkey’s alliances and enmities are central in the formation of balances. Competition or disagreement between the United States and Russia over Kurdish independence in Syria could lead to a protracted conflict for years to come in the Middle East.
KURDISTAN AFTER ISLAMIC STATE: SIX CRISES FACING THE KURDS IN IRAQ
The defeat of the Islamic State coincides with the emergence of a series of crises for the Kurdistan region of Iraq that were postponed by the arrival of the fight against Islamic State extremists. These problems include territory disputes between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and Baghdad, internal rivalries between Kurdish factions, internal controversies over independence, Iranian and Turkish pressures, an economic crisis, and the…
MOSUL: THE ORIGINS AND FUTURE OF COMPETING AGENDAS OVER RETAKING THE CITY FROM ISIS
Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city, has been a center for Islamic State since its conquest by the group in 2014. The Iraqi government, the United States-led coalition and the Kurdish Regional Government all seek to play a role in its re-conquest and see it as a key to future stability in a post-ISIS …
TURKEY’S CHANGING RELATIONS WITH THE IRAQI KURDISH REGIONAL GOVERNMENT
Since the Iraqi Kurdish rebellion in the early 1960s, Turkish policymakers have perceived Kurdish autonomy in northern Iraq as a major threat to the country’s national security, fearing that the Iraqi Kurdish experience would encourage Turkey’s Kurds to take similar steps towards autonomy and even independence. However, from the mid-2000s onwards …