After several years of sharp increase, European exports to Iran declined significantly from mid-2006 until late 2007. French government support for the United States placed French firms under extreme financial pressure from Washington. While 2008 showed an unexpected recovery of European exports to Iran, France seems to have lost market its share there, as Germany-in spite of its stated firmness on sanctions-maintained its high level of trade with Iran. With the Iranian market virtually cleared of competitors, will a “grand bargain” initiated by Barack Obama present American companies with easy access to this market?